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[小試牛刀翻譯]The Economist:人民幣：產品不再是最便宜
source:http://www.economist.com/news/china/21579488-after-enduring-decade-criticism-its-weakness-chinas-currency-now-looks-uncomfortably
The yuan : The cheapest thing going is gone
人民幣：產品不再是最便宜
After enduring a decade of criticism for its weakness, China’s currency now looks uncomfortably strong
在忍受了對其十年內軟弱的批評之後，現在中國的貨幣看起來強得不安。
Jun 15th 2013 | HONG KONG |From the print edition
TEN years ago, the yuan made its debut as a global economic bugbear. In June 2003, America’s then treasury secretary, John Snow, publicly encouraged China to loosen a policy under which its currency was pegged at 8.28 to the dollar. The next month four senators wrote an angry letter urging Mr Snow to investigate China for “currency manipulation”. The country was intentionally undervaluing its currency, argued Charles Schumer, a Democratic senator for New York. “The result is that everything they sell to other countries is the cheapest thing going.”
十年前，人民幣的首次亮相，成為了全球經濟的煩惱。在2003年的六月，美國當時的財政部長，John Snow，公開鼓勵中國放鬆其貨幣掛鉤8.28美元的政策。接下來的一個月，四個參議員給Mr Snow寫了一封憤怒的信，敦促他調查中國的「匯率操縱」。紐約民主黨參議員Charles Schumer認為：該國有意低估人民幣匯率。「結果就是，她們向其他國家所售賣的每樣物件都是最便宜的。」
A decade later, Mr Schumer and other senators are still bashing the yuan: eight of them re-introduced a bill last week that would slap duties on currency manipulators. But much else has changed. Now allowed to float by 1% a day on either side of a reference rate set each morning by the central bank, the yuan closed trading on May 27th at 6.12 to the dollar, 35% stronger than its June 2003 rate. It has risen more against the dollar since March than it rose in the whole of last year, and its climb against Japan’s currency has been even steeper. Since November, when the markets began to anticipate dramatic monetary easing in Japan, the yuan has gained over 20% against a weakened yen.
十年後，Mr Schumer和其他參議員仍然評擊人民幣，他們八人上週重新提出一項打擊匯率操縱者職責的法案，但是很多事都已經改變了。現在兩方以中央銀行每日早晨設定的一個參考利率，允許每日1％的浮動，人民幣的收盤價位於5月27日為6.12美元，比2003年的6月強35％。人民幣兌美元的升幅比自去年3月份的全年升幅高，而且兌日元的升幅更為急劇。自十一月，當市場開始預測日本的引人注目的貨幣寬鬆政策，人民幣兌疲弱的日元的升幅已經超過了20%。
The yuan : The cheapest thing going is gone
人民幣：產品不再是最便宜
After enduring a decade of criticism for its weakness, China’s currency now looks uncomfortably strong
在忍受了對其十年內軟弱的批評之後，現在中國的貨幣看起來強得不安。
Jun 15th 2013 | HONG KONG |From the print edition
TEN years ago, the yuan made its debut as a global economic bugbear. In June 2003, America’s then treasury secretary, John Snow, publicly encouraged China to loosen a policy under which its currency was pegged at 8.28 to the dollar. The next month four senators wrote an angry letter urging Mr Snow to investigate China for “currency manipulation”. The country was intentionally undervaluing its currency, argued Charles Schumer, a Democratic senator for New York. “The result is that everything they sell to other countries is the cheapest thing going.”
十年前，人民幣的首次亮相，成為了全球經濟的煩惱。在2003年的六月，美國當時的財政部長，John Snow，公開鼓勵中國放鬆其貨幣掛鉤8.28美元的政策。接下來的一個月，四個參議員給Mr Snow寫了一封憤怒的信，敦促他調查中國的「匯率操縱」。紐約民主黨參議員Charles Schumer認為：該國有意低估人民幣匯率。「結果就是，她們向其他國家所售賣的每樣物件都是最便宜的。」
A decade later, Mr Schumer and other senators are still bashing the yuan: eight of them re-introduced a bill last week that would slap duties on currency manipulators. But much else has changed. Now allowed to float by 1% a day on either side of a reference rate set each morning by the central bank, the yuan closed trading on May 27th at 6.12 to the dollar, 35% stronger than its June 2003 rate. It has risen more against the dollar since March than it rose in the whole of last year, and its climb against Japan’s currency has been even steeper. Since November, when the markets began to anticipate dramatic monetary easing in Japan, the yuan has gained over 20% against a weakened yen.
十年後，Mr Schumer和其他參議員仍然評擊人民幣，他們八人上週重新提出一項打擊匯率操縱者職責的法案，但是很多事都已經改變了。現在兩方以中央銀行每日早晨設定的一個參考利率，允許每日1％的浮動，人民幣的收盤價位於5月27日為6.12美元，比2003年的6月強35％。人民幣兌美元的升幅比自去年3月份的全年升幅高，而且兌日元的升幅更為急劇。自十一月，當市場開始預測日本的引人注目的貨幣寬鬆政策，人民幣兌疲弱的日元的升幅已經超過了20%。
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China’s competitiveness on world markets depends not only on the price of its currency but also on the price of its goods and workers at home. The Bank for International Settlements calculates a “real” exchange rate for 61 economies that takes account of inflation differences between them. Since 2010 China’s real exchange rate, weighted by trade, has risen faster than any other, with the sole exception of Venezuela’s.
中國在世界市場上的競爭力不僅取決於其貨幣的價格，還有其貨品和國內工人的價錢。國際結算銀行計算了一個考慮到61個經濟體之間的通貨膨脹差異的「真實」匯率。自2010年，中國的貿易加權實際匯率，除委內瑞拉外，已經比其他國家都增長得高。
The price of labour is also rising faster in China than in its principal trading partners. The Economist has calculated an alternative “real” exchange rate, weighted by trade with America, the euro area and Japan, which takes account of unit labour costs in all four economies. By this measure, China’s real exchange rate has strengthened by almost 50% since Messrs Snow and Schumer began their currency-bashing ten years ago. If the yuan was the cheapest thing going back then, now its cheapness has all but gone. Some economists, such as Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research, even wonder if the yuan is now overvalued.
中國的勞動力價格亦比她其他的貿易夥伴增長得快。本雜誌計算了一個另類的貿易加權「實際」匯率，它考慮了美國、歐元區和日本合共四個經濟體的單位勞動力成本。以這個標準來衡量，中國的實際匯率已升值近50％，自Messrs Snow和 Schumer開始他們十年前的評擊匯率。如果人民幣以往是最便宜的事物，那麼，現在它的便宜幾乎已經消失了。一些經濟學家，例如Lombard Street Research的Diana Choyleva，也懷疑人民幣是否被高估了。
This long-term strengthening of China’s real exchange rate reflects deep historical forces, such as China’s rapid economic growth, stronger labour laws, and shrinking working-age population. But the more recent surge in its nominal exchange rate is puzzling and awkward. It comes at a time of disappointing growth, falling inflation (only 2.1% in the year to May) and flagging exports (which grew by only 1% over the same period).
中國實際匯率的長期升值，反映了深厚的歷史力量，如中國的快速經濟增長、更強的勞動法律和勞動年齡人口萎縮。但是，最近在其名義匯率的飆升實在是令人費解和古怪。這是一次令人失望的增長，通脹率下降（只有2.1％，在今年至五月），萎靡不振的出口（較上年同期僅增長1％）。
中國在世界市場上的競爭力不僅取決於其貨幣的價格，還有其貨品和國內工人的價錢。國際結算銀行計算了一個考慮到61個經濟體之間的通貨膨脹差異的「真實」匯率。自2010年，中國的貿易加權實際匯率，除委內瑞拉外，已經比其他國家都增長得高。
The price of labour is also rising faster in China than in its principal trading partners. The Economist has calculated an alternative “real” exchange rate, weighted by trade with America, the euro area and Japan, which takes account of unit labour costs in all four economies. By this measure, China’s real exchange rate has strengthened by almost 50% since Messrs Snow and Schumer began their currency-bashing ten years ago. If the yuan was the cheapest thing going back then, now its cheapness has all but gone. Some economists, such as Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research, even wonder if the yuan is now overvalued.
中國的勞動力價格亦比她其他的貿易夥伴增長得快。本雜誌計算了一個另類的貿易加權「實際」匯率，它考慮了美國、歐元區和日本合共四個經濟體的單位勞動力成本。以這個標準來衡量，中國的實際匯率已升值近50％，自Messrs Snow和 Schumer開始他們十年前的評擊匯率。如果人民幣以往是最便宜的事物，那麼，現在它的便宜幾乎已經消失了。一些經濟學家，例如Lombard Street Research的Diana Choyleva，也懷疑人民幣是否被高估了。
This long-term strengthening of China’s real exchange rate reflects deep historical forces, such as China’s rapid economic growth, stronger labour laws, and shrinking working-age population. But the more recent surge in its nominal exchange rate is puzzling and awkward. It comes at a time of disappointing growth, falling inflation (only 2.1% in the year to May) and flagging exports (which grew by only 1% over the same period).
中國實際匯率的長期升值，反映了深厚的歷史力量，如中國的快速經濟增長、更強的勞動法律和勞動年齡人口萎縮。但是，最近在其名義匯率的飆升實在是令人費解和古怪。這是一次令人失望的增長，通脹率下降（只有2.1％，在今年至五月），萎靡不振的出口（較上年同期僅增長1％）。
What is causing this sudden strength and why are China’s policymakers tolerating it? Peng Wensheng of CICC, a Chinese investment bank, argues that the currency’s rise this year reflects the persistence of higher interest rates in China than elsewhere, and the disappearance of devaluation fears. Benchmark interest rates in Shanghai have long been three to five percentage points higher than similar rates in London. Last year, when China’s economy was faltering and its leadership was in flux, the appeal of these higher rates was offset by fears that the yuan would fall. Those worries eased this year, prompting short-term capital to flow back into China, much of it disguised as export earnings.
是甚麼導致這突如其來的力量，以及為甚麼中國的政策制定者仍然容忍它呢？一間中國投資銀行CICC的Peng Wensheng認為：今年貨幣的升幅反映中國的更高利息比其他地方都持續，以及對貶值的恐懼的消失。上海的基準利率長期以來一直高於相似比率的倫敦三到五個百分點。去年，當中國的經濟處於步履蹣跚及其領導層不斷變化，這些高利率的吸引力被人民幣將會下降的恐懼抵消。今年，這些憂慮已經緩解，並促使短期資本流回中國，而其中大部分的短期資本假扮成出口收入。
That explains the motivation of the capitalists, but what about the communists? As the yuan has floated up within its daily band, the central bank has largely accommodated its movements, raising its morning reference rate by a similar amount.
這解釋了資本家的動機，但對於共產黨人呢？由於人民幣已浮上在其日常範圍內，央行已大致適應它的變動，並以相似金額來提升它的早晨參考利率。
The government’s tolerance for a stronger yuan may reflect its larger reform ambitions, argues Mark Williams of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Last month Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, said that an operational plan for easing capital controls would be put forward later this year. If the yuan were much below its market value, relaxing capital controls could invite a destabilising influx of foreign money. By that logic, the government might have seen a stronger yuan as a necessary precondition for looser controls.
一間顧問公司的Mark Williams認為：政府容忍人民幣升值，可能反映了它更大的改革野心。上個月，中國的總理，李克強說：一個緩和資本管制的運作計劃將會於今年晚點提出。如果人民幣遠低於其市場價值，放鬆資本管制可能會吸引到破壞穩定的的外國資金湧入。按照這種邏輯，政府可能已經看到了人民幣升值，是作為更加寬鬆的管制的一個必要的先決條件。
If so, then the currency volatility of recent months may have stalled these grand designs. In the past few weeks, the foreign-exchange regulator has clamped down on hot-money inflows disguised as export earnings. And the yuan’s climb has levelled off. The removal of China’s capital controls was always going to be a gradual and careful affair. It has been ten years since China’s currency ripened into a big international controversy. It may take another ten before it matures into a fully convertible international currency.
如果是這樣的話，那麼近幾個月的匯率波動可能拖延了這些宏偉的構想。在過去幾個星期，外匯監管機構已開始嚴格管制熱錢假扮成出口收入流入，而人民幣的升幅已趨於穩定。去除中國的資本管制會是一個漸進和謹慎事情。自中國的貨幣成熟至成為一個國際大爭議，這已經過了十多年。這可能需要再過十年才成熟到變成完全可自由兌換國際貨幣。
是甚麼導致這突如其來的力量，以及為甚麼中國的政策制定者仍然容忍它呢？一間中國投資銀行CICC的Peng Wensheng認為：今年貨幣的升幅反映中國的更高利息比其他地方都持續，以及對貶值的恐懼的消失。上海的基準利率長期以來一直高於相似比率的倫敦三到五個百分點。去年，當中國的經濟處於步履蹣跚及其領導層不斷變化，這些高利率的吸引力被人民幣將會下降的恐懼抵消。今年，這些憂慮已經緩解，並促使短期資本流回中國，而其中大部分的短期資本假扮成出口收入。
That explains the motivation of the capitalists, but what about the communists? As the yuan has floated up within its daily band, the central bank has largely accommodated its movements, raising its morning reference rate by a similar amount.
這解釋了資本家的動機，但對於共產黨人呢？由於人民幣已浮上在其日常範圍內，央行已大致適應它的變動，並以相似金額來提升它的早晨參考利率。
The government’s tolerance for a stronger yuan may reflect its larger reform ambitions, argues Mark Williams of Capital Economics, a consultancy. Last month Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, said that an operational plan for easing capital controls would be put forward later this year. If the yuan were much below its market value, relaxing capital controls could invite a destabilising influx of foreign money. By that logic, the government might have seen a stronger yuan as a necessary precondition for looser controls.
一間顧問公司的Mark Williams認為：政府容忍人民幣升值，可能反映了它更大的改革野心。上個月，中國的總理，李克強說：一個緩和資本管制的運作計劃將會於今年晚點提出。如果人民幣遠低於其市場價值，放鬆資本管制可能會吸引到破壞穩定的的外國資金湧入。按照這種邏輯，政府可能已經看到了人民幣升值，是作為更加寬鬆的管制的一個必要的先決條件。
If so, then the currency volatility of recent months may have stalled these grand designs. In the past few weeks, the foreign-exchange regulator has clamped down on hot-money inflows disguised as export earnings. And the yuan’s climb has levelled off. The removal of China’s capital controls was always going to be a gradual and careful affair. It has been ten years since China’s currency ripened into a big international controversy. It may take another ten before it matures into a fully convertible international currency.
如果是這樣的話，那麼近幾個月的匯率波動可能拖延了這些宏偉的構想。在過去幾個星期，外匯監管機構已開始嚴格管制熱錢假扮成出口收入流入，而人民幣的升幅已趨於穩定。去除中國的資本管制會是一個漸進和謹慎事情。自中國的貨幣成熟至成為一個國際大爭議，這已經過了十多年。這可能需要再過十年才成熟到變成完全可自由兌換國際貨幣。
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如果是這樣的話，那麼近幾個月的匯率波動可能拖延了這些宏偉的構想。在過去幾個星期，外匯監管機構已開始嚴格管制熱錢假扮成出口收入流入，而人民幣的升幅已趨於穩定。
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希望多d膠登仔效法你, 咁應該對膠登市場佔有好有幫助
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